Forecasting the East
Published by Trevor Smith on October 21, 2008
Training camp has come and gone, and the preseason is nearing it’s conclusion. Yes, fellow hoops fiends, after a long summer the new NBA season is finally gearing up to begin.
We did have the pleasure of the Olympic tournament to tide us over these last four months, but for fanatics like us at Hoops Addict, there is nothing that equates to the start of the new season. It is a chance at renewed promise and inspiration for fans league-wide. That euphoria will certainly fade in some corners by January when local teams drop in the standings and the reality of another season lost sets in, but for now hope springs eternal.
In the lead-up to the season opener on October 28, pundits, bloggers, and forecasters around the globe will be casting their opinions about what is to come over the next eight months. In that spirit, I too shall join the fray. Keep in mind that these predictions do not reflect those of Hoops Addict as a whole, but my own humble opinion. Today, ten (mostly) fearless predictions about what to expect in the Eastern Conference.
Starting in the Southeast division, I expect some regression on the part of the Orlando Magic. Mickey Mouse’s favourite team still lacks a scorer that can create on his own. While Hedo Turkoglu showed tremendous growth as a go-to-scorer last season, he faltered at times during the postseason. Rashard Lewis did little to justify his enormous contract and is not a franchise-level player. Dwight Howard is, of course. However, as a traditional post player he still requires Jameer Nelson to facilitate his scoring, especially given his lack of potent post-moves. Howard’s rebounding and their breadth of long-range shooters will see them win a lot of regular season games and repeat as division champs, but their lack of a last-minute option will cost them in the playoffs.
Staying in the Southeast, it is my feeling that Washington is likely to struggle early on without their leader Gilbert Arenas. Playing without Arenas is nothing new for Washington, but his absence will certainly be felt on offense. Further, the loss of Brendan Haywood for upwards of sixth months creates massive post issues, particularly on defense where they have struggle all preseason. That said, the team still has Caron Butler, one of the most under appreciated and complete players in all of basketball. Butler will pair with the ever-steady Antawn Jamison to help the Wiz regain their form around the All-Star break and another playoff bid.
Skipping over to the Atlantic, the eternal optimist in me sees Toronto staying relatively healthy and pushing Boston for the division before finishing just short, securing the fourth seed. The Raptors have the all-around talent and winning attitude that should carry them to over 50 wins for the first time in franchise history. They will need to keep Jose Calderon healthy and significantly improve their rebounding, but so long as they can get around 70 games from each O’Neal and Bosh, they should have the mettle to get out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the Sixers will improve in terms of total wins, but will move up only one position in the standings of the now loaded East. Their uneven preseason means little, as the team is still working Elton Brand into its system and learning how to slow their play somewhat to accommodate the former All-Star. I expect them to win over 45 games this year and build upon their experience last season against Detroit as a catalyst for more success. Experts though who project them among the conference’s elite are over-selling this mostly young squad. Brand only carried the Clippers to one meaningful playoff run, and there is no assurance that last year’s lost season hasn’t slowed him significantly.
Division rivals for Philadelphia include the Knicks, whose season will have more storylines than ‘Gossip Girl’ and will produce one of the most interesting 24 win team ever assembled. While I believe that Mike D’Antoni will eventually be able to secure pieces that fit his style of play, that day is still a long way off. In the meantime, at least the daily papers in New York will have a good dose of column fodder.
Yes, the Knicks will be interesting and lousy- the same cannot be said about perpetually disappointing Bobcats and their 30 victories that lie ahead. Larry Brown’s last stop in the NBA did not go over well, and unfortunately this might not be much better: there is talent throughout the roster, but no real sense of team to drive it. They are a team that wants to win now, but without much of a plan for how to do so.
Speaking of plans, the Nets will continue theirs long-term and mail in the majority of this season. Management is counting the days until they can officially try to sign LeBron James; their deal during the NBA Draft merely took away any pretenses for New Jersey that they were trying to be competitive before moving to Brooklyn. Vince Carter will most likely sulk through most of November before ultimately becoming a prize asset around the trade deadline.
As for teams with hope still on their side, Miami will win a dog-fight for the eighth spot over a greatly improved Milwaukee team. While the Bucks have more talent on their roster overall, the Heat have a healthy, inspired Dwyane Wade, which in and of itself will be enough to carry them to the postseason so long as they get a decent contribution from Shawn Marion and Michael Beasley. Beasley’s fellow new comer, Derrick Rose, will round into form late in the season in Chicago to help make them factor for most of race before fading in the final two weeks. Atlanta will take an unfortunate step backwards after failing to resign Josh Childress and not capitalizing on their surprise run last spring.
The Central will be a fiercely contested division between the only two real players: Detroit and Cleveland. Ultimately, this observer believes the Cavs will finish first in the regular season not only in the division, but the Eastern Conference as well. This might seem like a lofty jump given how they coasted for much of last season to only finish fourth, but I believe the addition of Mo Williams will prove brilliant. James is the most naturally gifted player in the game and this move finally gives him someone else who can preside over the offense confidently, meaning James will not have to rely so heavily on straight isolation plays off the dribble from the top of the key.
Meanwhile, there will be a changing of the guard somewhat in Detroit, with young players like Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiell who will take on even greater roles for a team beginning to age at several key positions. Joe Dumars had planned to make sweeping changes this summer, and while not doing so will not prevent them from winning 50-plus games, it will from winning a title.
Finally in the East, there is the question of whether or not Boston will still be as hungry, and as healthy, as they were last season given that its veteran core has now finally won. I would not worry about the issue of desire: so long as Kevin Garnett is their leader, the Celtics shall not want in terms of passion. What does worry me slightly is that the team’s “ubuntu”philosophy will suffer somewhat from the loss of James Posey, who was critical to their success, as well as the additions of potential problems Bill Walker and Darius Miles.
Beyond that, there is the issue of health, particularly as it concerns Ray Allen, Garnett, and Paul Pierce, whose comments this summer show may be feeling a bit too satisfied with himself after winning it all. Make no mistake though, this is still the class of the East and I fully expect them to return to the Finals, just to also take a slight step back during the regular season to rest their veterans.
Come June, Boston will most assuredly be in position to try to win back-to-back NBA Championships.
Photo Credit: ICON Sports Media
This article was written by:
Trevor Smith - who has written 44 posts on Hoops Addict.
Trevor Smith is a management consultant living in Toronto, Ontario. He currently writes for HoopsAddict.com, and previously worked for NBA Cares. He is a graduate of Queen's University.
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Rashad Mobley
on Tue, 21st Oct 2008 11:23 pm
I like the faith you have in my Wizards..I hope they don’t struggle too much in the first few months
khandor
on Thu, 23rd Oct 2008 3:54 pm
Trevor,
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re: Skipping over to the Atlantic, the eternal optimist in me sees Toronto staying relatively healthy and pushing Boston for the division before finishing just short, securing the fourth seed. The Raptors have the all-around talent and winning attitude that should carry them to over 50 wins for the first time in franchise history. They will need to keep Jose Calderon healthy and significantly improve their rebounding, but so long as they can get around 70 games from each O’Neal and Bosh, they should have the mettle to get out of the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
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1. Please refrain from drinking the Kool-Aid on the overall quality of the Raptors’ roster, as is, relative to the other very solid outfits in the Eastern Conference this year, e.g. the Celtics, Pistons, Magic, and 76ers.
2. Given the improvements made by the other teams in the EC, i.e. Atlanta, Indiana, Chicago, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Miami, New York, Charlotte, plus the maintenance work done in Cleveland and Washington this summer … the Raptors might not even qualify for the playoffs, let alone battle it out with the Celtics for top spot in the Atlantic Division.
3. If they do manage to qualify and the Raptors are matched-up with the Celtics, or the Pistons, or the Magic, or the 76ers, or the Cavaliers … it will mean the 3rd straight exit from the 1st Round for Toronto.