Calculating Chris Paul’s Bid for MVP
There is no denying that the MVP debate has gone to another level in recent weeks. In fact, you could argue that the race for the most ambiguous trophy in pro sports has even overtaken the “Wacky West” playoff race as the NBA story de jour.
This is one of those years where you probably can’t go wrong with an MVP vote. LeBron James is putting up otherworldly numbers. Kobe Bryant is playing the way everyone – fans and critics alike – have always wanted him to play. Chris Paul is revolutionizing the point guard position. Even Kevin Garnett has to remain a credible choice thanks to the unbelievable turnaround the Celtics have enjoyed in Boston.
That said, the race seems to be coming down to two players: Bryant and Paul. You could probably write 20 versions of this column, with a different slant on who should win the award and why.
Today, in this piece, I’m presenting an argument for Chris Paul and it is based entirely on numbers. Obvious numbers, subtle numbers, made-up numbers … we are running the gamut. I won’t be delving into subjective things like who is the better leader, or who makes more of an impact on the defensive end, or who has a better Master’s Weekend, or who may or may not have saved basketball for an entire city, or even who “deserves” the award more. This is purely a statistical case for Paul getting some “trophy love.”
Let’s proceed.
Statistical Item #1 - Chris Paul leads the league in assists at 11.6 per game. For whatever reason, this stat isn’t sinking in for people, and I think it is because of Steve Nash. Consider the following:
• Only one player (Nash, last year) has averaged at least 11.5 assists for a season in the last 13 years.
• Nash is over 11 assists per game this year (11.1), which means that two players are averaging more than 11 dimes per night for the first time since the 1990-91 season.
• Not only that, but this is the first time since 1996-97 that two players have even averaged over 10 assists per game.
• For the entire decade, only four players have averaged over 10 assists per game for a season: Nash (four times), Paul, Andre Miller (2001-02), and Jason Kidd (1999-2000).
• Since 1996-97, only Nash and Paul have averaged over 11 assists in a season
As you can see, going for 11 dimes per night is no easy task. And when you consider that Nash’s Phoenix teams are consistently near the top of the league in pace, while Paul’s Hornets play at one of the league’s slowest paces, you start to get an idea of how impressive that 11.6 number really is.
Statistical Item #2 - Chris Paul leads the league in steals at 2.7 per game. This is an important statistic because it cuts against some weird propaganda that has been floating around the Interwebs, whereby people are using some complicated stats in a rudimentary way. Using a concept known as “Adjusted Plus/Minus,” analysts are suggesting that the Hornets are better defensively when Paul is not on the court. Watching Hornets games suggests something else, which is that New Orleans simply plays a more deliberate style when their point guard rests, which results in fewer points scored against the backups. Either way, it is somewhat amusing to hear people criticize Paul’s defense when he’s out there dominating the passing lanes every night. His 2.7 steals per game is easily the best mark in the league and a number that almost doesn’t seem possible in an era with such tight hand-checking rules. Consider that Baron Davis has increased his league-leading mark from a year ago about .3 steals per game … and is still .3 behind Paul.
Statistical Item #3 - He is on pace to be the fourth player to ever lead the league in both categories in the same season. Think about that for a minute. While it is worth noting that the NBA didn’t start tracking steals as a category until the 1973-74 season, it is still amazing that in almost 35 seasons, Paul is just the fourth guy to ever lead the league in both assists and steals in the same season.
Statistical Item #4 - Paul is on pace to become the seventh player – and the first since Magic in 1986-87 – to ever score over 20 points per game while also leading the league in assists. Again, this is a testament to his ability to dominate the game either as a scorer or as a playmaker. Paul is making this look easy, but nobody has led the league in dimes while scoring 20+ in over 20 years. That’s amazing.
Statistical Item #5 - Paul is about to become the first player in NBA history to lead the league in assists and steals while scoring 20 or more points per game. You thought the 20+ and the league-leading assist total was impressive? Throw in the league lead in thefts and you are looking at a season that is the first of its kind. Again, this has never happened until now. Just wanted to make sure everyone was clear on that.
Statistical Item #6 - If Paul finishes with his current averages for points, assists, and steals (21.1/11.6/2.7), he will become the first player in NBA history to ever reach that combination. Again, “ever” is the key word.
Statistical Item #7 - He is on pace to record over 11 assists and under 2.6 turnovers per contest … no one has ever done that either.
Statistical Item #8 - Paul is second in the NBA in Player Efficiency Rating (behind only LeBron) at 28.34.
Statistical Item #9 - Based on traditional stats, Paul bests his chief MVP rival, Kobe Bryant: Paul has the superior FG%, FT%, 3PT%, assist per game, steals per game, and turnovers per game, while Bryant wins in points per game, rebounds per game, and blocks per game. Paul tallies a 6-3 decision.
Statistical Item #10 - Even the basic numbers don’t tell the whole story, as Paul also holds a lead over Bryant in true shooting percentage and effective field goal percentage, covering all conceivable marksmanship categories. He also averages 44.3 “points created”(1) which is second in the league (behind LeBron’s 44.4) and well ahead of Kobe’s 39.22 (2), which covers the points/assists discussion. As for rebounds, you could argue that Paul mitigates that as well, given that he is a +0.2 in “ball control” (steals-turnovers) to Kobe’s -1.3. It’s not quite enough to offset a +2.4 rebounding advantage for Bryant, but it trims that number down to 0.9. To summarize, Paul shoots better, creates 12% more points per game, and only generates 0.9 fewer possessions per game than Bryant.
Much has been said about Chris Paul. Statistics have certainly played a role in telling that story. But does anyone truly understand what this guy is doing? He’s not only having the best statistical season in the NBA this season (apologies to LeBron James), he’s probably having the best statistical season of this decade.
(1) Points Created is a rudimentary measure used to assess how many points a player generates for his team. It is calculated by simply doubling the assist total (assuming that all assists contribute to a two-point field goal) and adding it to the point total.
(2) Bryant places sixth, behind James, Paul, Allen Iverson, Deron Williams, and Steve Nash.
Photo Credit: ICON SMI
Comments
By rashad on April 16th, 2008 at 9:03 am
I agree with you. Unfortunately, this award has Kobe’s name on it after the Lakers wrapped up the West. And I think most writers think like Sam Smith(now formerly of the Tribune) and they will give it Kobe, because he’s been the best player over the past 5 years or so, and he hasn’t won the award.
By jeck on April 21st, 2008 at 5:17 am
Its wrong to say that Kobe deserves to be the MVP because he’s a veteran in the league and havent had one. Numbers don’t lie, clearly Chris Paul is more valuable than Kobe.
By ponga on April 21st, 2008 at 6:16 am
have you ever wondered why jordan did not make it as an mvp despite of a great stats. i think it was isiah thomas who won the mvp
By VinZ on April 21st, 2008 at 7:01 am
i Think Kobe deserves to be the MVP eventhough CP3 showing an impressive stats.. Kobe became a leader and give a great contribution to make the LA Lakers improve and became the best team in the west. I truly believe that he would win the title. And he had been a great player this past few years, as I observe, he is the greates player in the NBA in today’s generation next to MJ.
By nen on April 21st, 2008 at 10:44 am
theres another time for cp3. i think kobe deserves the MVP this time.
but i want denver to win over lakers. go ai3…
love you blance
By hero on April 22nd, 2008 at 12:55 am
This is the greatest piece of writing I’ve ever read. No joke.
By Gsiz on May 2nd, 2008 at 2:17 am
I think this article had alot of solid points regarding Paul. Also, “ponga”, Michael Jordan was a 5 time MVP. The fact that you thought he never won even 1 makes me sick to my stomach.
By Edwin Arce on May 2nd, 2008 at 6:59 pm
Paul has a season that is far more deserving of the MVP award. Kobe getting a sympathy MVP award because he “deserves it”? Give it to the player that has the best season every year and this year it’s Paul.
By Christina on May 6th, 2008 at 6:52 pm
Chris Paul absolutely deserves MVP over Kobe. It isn’t even a question… Kobe has obviously played very well this season, but his stats have been more or less the same as last year’s. So because the rest of his team improved over the summer (while he was a demanding a trade, no less) then he deserves MVP??
And “nen”, people who think like you are exactly the reason that Kobe is getting MVP. The MVP award should have absolutely NOTHING to do with past or future seasons. It is about only the season in question. Kobe having never won should not affect anything, and CP3 having plenty of time to win it should also have NOTHING to do with it. Its completely irrelevant to who is the MVP of THIS season.
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