The Importance of Next Year
It’s safe to say year two of the Bryan Colangelo era hasn’t gone exactly the way most people expected.
Granted, most writers at the beginning of the year had written off the Raptors as a one-hit wonder. The cries from around the league were that the Raptors were a marginal team with marginal talent who caught a lot of teams off guard last year. Of course, those from the Nation of Red knew the Raptors managed to beat many of the best teams around the league and had assembled a core with the potential to be something special for a long, long time.
Nevertheless, the Raptors have had a fairly mediocre season for several reasons not predicted by most analysts.
The first was that the injury bug bit into the core of the Raptors fairly hard. Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford and Jorge Garbajosa all became victims and all were important pieces last year.
Another huge factor was the perceived regression of Andrea Bargnani for most of the year, as he has been unable to find the same level of consistency that was a part of his game in the latter part of last year. Finally forced to play a post position for an entire year, he struggled to find a balance between his considerable outside shooting talent and his inside post responsibilities.
All of which brings us to here, the end of the season.
But before we close the book on this season, we should take a look at the next. The most important step for the Raptors is to assess what they will do in the upcoming season, not because this year was a regression, but because there’s a real danger that this team will simply just be mediocre in the long run, rather than become elite. After all, the most difficult transition is to get from being a 40-plus-win team to a 50-plus-win perennial playoff competitor.
The danger of their current positioning is that the Raptors are currently unable to attain a high lottery pick to discover the talent they need. By the same token, they also have a lot of space tied up in salary until the 2009 offseason. Therefore it’s crucial that next year be a true evaluation point as to the direction of the team and just how far the team is from being championship calibre. Can the Raptors continue to build on the promise we all saw in the 2006-2007 campaign? Or is there a significant structural flaw to the team’s makeup that needs to be addressed? There are several factors that will help us figure this out and all of these things will play out in the upcoming year:
1. Is Andrea Bargnani the type of player we expect him to be?
If this year can be considered a wash, then what is the future for our seven-foot pasta-eating machine? Another year in the league playing the center position will not be enough to instill what simply has to come within the next year, a sense of when is the right time to hit the glass. Bob McCown of Prime Time Sports, says it should be as easy as telling Bargnani to “stand here”. There are two difficulties with this train of thought. The first is that the NBA has three second rules about being in the key and all centers have to figure out when a person is going up for a shot so that they can figure out when to start approaching the key. The next difficulty is figuring out when the right time to crash the boards hard is instead of just standing around clogging the lane. There’s been lots of talk that he’ll be going to John Lucas’ basketball camp this summer to help in all of these areas, so it’ll be interesting to see if his progress has taken a step forwards or backwards in the upcoming year.
2. Can Jorge Garbajosa come back to being the player he once was?
What are the main deficiencies of the current squad? Basketball IQ, toughness and a constant ability to rebound from the wings. Which of those deficiencies does Jorge Garbajosa address? All of them. It cannot be stressed just how much the Raptors missed Garbajosa this season. Against bigger forwards like Stephen Jackson or Richard Jefferson, he has the mass and muscle to keep up with them. Against quick players like Corey Maggette, he would play them towards their weaknesses so that they wouldn’t feel comfortable.
Most importantly is that he would have been a steadying voice to guide a young, pressured sophomore star who was in the middle of a difficult funk for most of the year. Last year, we saw Garbajosa take Andrea Bargnani under his wing to give him some pointers and encouragement in his times of need. On a team with preciously few veteran leaders, Garbajosa’s influence on the team as a whole cannot be underestimated. Finally, it’s also a contract year for him, so the Raptors need to make a decision about his future with the club.
3. Roko Ukic’s impending arrival.
It’s not a certainty, but if Roko Ukic finds his way into the Raptors locker room, we may be looking at a very interesting situation within the Raptors organization next year. With reports coming in from the Euroleague that Roko is finally getting some decent experience on the floor and showing some of his considerable skills, it will be interesting to see how he fits within the organization. Is he, for example, a possible replacement for T.J. Ford since their games are so similar? Is it possible that he could become interesting trade bait as multiple teams are seriously looking for a great point guard? The evaluation of Roko Ukic’s talent and future in the NBA will be a significant news story in the upcoming year.
The significance of the upcoming year cannot be denied. There are very few times that a team can take stock of their progress and make wholesale changes if needed. For example, the New Jersey Nets have stayed a middle-tier Eastern Conference team with their big three for the past few years until their recent trade. Milwaukee, with Glen Robinson, Ray Allen and Sam Cassell, always seemed to be on the cusp of being a great team, but could never fulfill their promise and yet could never make a change to take their team to the next level.
The opportunity for the Raptors, however, is coming soon. They are lucky enough that they have a very nice core of players and yet have the cap room and contract flexibility to do something about their glaring faults.
The window of opportunity is not terribly large, but it is there, and the Raptors have to seize it by taking an objective and honest look at their talent and the direction of the team.
Photo Credit: ICON SMI
Comments
By Manel on April 9th, 2008 at 4:44 am
Good post Kinnon but I don’t know why you talk frequently about Ukic. He was playing here (Barcelona) last year and I saw some euroligue matches this year. It’s true that he has earned more minutes in Lottomatica di Roma but IMHO he’s erratic and probably a SG in PG body (a TJ’s poor version). I will be happy if I’m wrong but I don’t think he has shown a NBA level until now.
By Kinnon Yee on April 9th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Manel - There are some prognosticators that see him as being a better point guard in the NBA. With T.J. Ford having the Stenosis issue, and with Ukic steadily developing, he won’t be a good #1 guy, but as a back up to Calderon, he might be valuable for the Raptors in the upcoming year. It’s not necessarily that Ukic is that good, but just that a combination of factors might lead Ukic to being a very important piece next year. For example, if the Raptors cannot resolve the TJ Ford situation, cannot trade him for a player of value in the off season, or have trouble with his spine, it will immediately thrust Ukic into the spotlight if he’s over here. All three scenarios are fairly likely in my opinion, so while I’m not saying he’s a suitable replacement for Ford, it’s just that I’d say he’s very likely an important piece next year just because of the uncertainty surrounding Ford.
By Jeff W on April 9th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Kinnon! Are you the guy who attacks my comments section whenever I mention “Ukic” (or “TJ” or “point guard”, for that matter)?
FYI, this post by Raul Jimenez focuses on Ukic’s possible impact when he lands in the NBA.
re: Garbajosa — good point (and nice pic). He would’ve been huge at F/C for us this year. If only we could take the Delorean back to March 26, 2007. *sigh*
By Manel on April 9th, 2008 at 5:37 pm
Ok, Kinnon I understand now your point of view. It that scenario, similar to the current year, Ukic can fill the sport (10-15 mpg) behind Jose offering something ’similar’ to TJ’s play. Also, he can develop there (he has been around for years, but he’s young).
By Kinnon Yee on April 9th, 2008 at 10:52 pm
Jeff W - lol. What am I, your stalker? I sign my comments so you know who back stabs you :p And yeah, I remember that post. i commented on it
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