Is There a Diamond in the East’s 5-8 Seeds?
Alright basketball pundits, we get the message. The Western Conference is far superior to the Eastern Conference overall, but the East may have the best two teams.
We’ve heard that sentiment plenty lately. We’ve also heard to no end just how exciting and competitive the West’s playoff race is. Don’t get me wrong, I love that playoff race and had trouble ungluing my eyes from the West side of the standings to write this column. It’s that good ‘out there.’
But what about in the East? It sure is a top heavy conference, right? Boston, Detroit, Orlando and Cleveland are the only teams more than a game above .500, and are widely assumed to be dominant over the paltry remains in the East.
But is this true? A look at the East standings right now tells us a few things.
For one, four teams will be heading into the playoffs well rested and ready. The other four will probably head in exhausted after a wild battle for…the fifth seed? The middle of the Eastern Conference pack is tight and exciting, just like the entire West. And don’t fool yourself, this battle matters, too.
All four of the ‘other’ East teams can be considered dangerous in the playoffs. None of them could beat Detroit or Boston, that’s a given, and none of them have a great chance at containing LeBron James or Dwight Howard for seven games. That said, though, let’s take a look at the four teams scrapping it out for playoff seeding and see which has the best chance of getting the coveted fifth or sixth seed and upsetting Orlando or Cleveland in a first round series.
A few things reveal themselves here. Foremost, we can probably count the Hawks out. Even though they have the eigth seed in control, they are a far cry from seventh at this point and do not match up well with the Celtics (but who does, right?). Additionally, the other three teams are remarkably even.
Philadelphia has really turned it on of late, going 20-7 since February 5, when the team announced Andre Miller would not be traded. A great team dynamic has emerged as Miller took on a leadership role, Iguodala began to flourish, and young players like Thaddeus Young and Sweet Lou Williams developed at a rapid pace.
Washington has managed to stay afloat all season despite serious injury adversity. Gilbert Arenas has missed almost the entire year and Caron Butler, their unsung leader and maybe the most improved player in the league over the past three years, has battled injury troubles all year. Still, the Wizards are a game over .500 and Arenas made a surprise return last night. They may have trouble re-meshing, but they have seven games to do it and it would be tough to argue that you’d rather head into a playoff series without a healthy Agent Zero than with him.
Toronto has struggled since the All-Star break but managed to stay marginally above .500. The Raptors also have a year of playoff experience under their belt and have been held back by injuries this year, too.
The three teams seem pretty even but, again, it will come down to who can grab the fifth and sixth seed, not necessarily who the best team is. The Raptors have to be the favourite with a terrible set of opponents on tap – only one winning team, and it is a Pistons team that will likely be trying to get their starters a modicum of rest for a long playoff run. The Raptors seriously need to use this time to find themselves again and would be better suited finishing sixth (Chris Bosh destroys the Magic and Orlando is a poor perimeter defending team), but fifth seems a possibility.
Philadelphia has the next easiest schedule, an even .500 that is artificially high with games against Detroit and Cleveland teams that may be in a holding pattern at that time. The Sixers are the hottest of these three teams and could push for the fifth seed, though they would have a distinct rebounding advantage over any team except Cleveland.
Washington, as said, has Gilbert back now, and this probably hurts their chances of getting the fifth seed as the team gets used to Arenas again. The Wizards hold the tie-breaker in this three-way and have the additional motivation of a rivalry with Cleveland, though no team could possibly want to face an…angry…LeBron James.
So how do things look, overall? I like the order to finish Toronto-Philly-Washington. This basically eliminates Washington from the playoffs – they’re good, but not Detroit Basketball good. It delivers a tough match-up for the Raptors against LeBron James and company, and Toronto would have to shoot the lights out for seven games to stand a real chance. Philly would then get Orlando, a match-up they may like. Iguodala can handle one of Rashard Lewis or Hedo Turkoglu on defense and the 76ers rank ahead of the Magic in rebounding rate and defensive efficiency, though they trail offensively.
My prediction, though? The East side of the playoff bracket will be just as good as the West come round two, with the top four seeds moving on. Thought you should know that the others do have a chance, though.
Blake Murphy also runs and writes for The On Deck Circle.
This post was written by:
Blake Murphy - who has written 21 posts on Hoops Addict.
Blake Murphy is a Queen's University Business graduate and broadcast journalism hopeful. He uses his business background often to analyze basketball from a management perspective more so than a fan perspective.
[...] Posted by Blake Murphy on April 3, 2008 Check it out, new article up over at Hoops Addict. This one takes a look at the lower playoff seeds in the East, who is likely to get the favorable 5th and 6th seed, and if any of these teams have a chance at upsetting Orlando or Cleveland. You can check that out here. [...]
Blake,
What W-L record do you foresee the Raptors finishing with to put them into a 5 vs 4 match-up against Cleveland?
[...] 2007-08 season. - Rent Rodman - Dennis Rodman is whoring himself out (and we’re tempted). - Hoops Addict - The race to avoid Detroit and Boston in Round 1 of the playoffs. - 20 Second Timeout - Three [...]
For example,
if the Raptors pick up L’s @ NJ, @ Det & @ Chi with W’s vs Cha, vs NJ, vs Mil, & vs Mia … that would put Toronto at 42-40.
Do you see the Raptors finishing with more than 42 wins this season?
The 3 diamonds in the rough, in the Eastern Conference playoffs will be
Orlando … who are significantly under-rated, right now
Washington … who have 2 W’s this year, playing without Agent Zero
Philadelphia … who can rebound the ball, share it on offense, and defend.
That said, Boston and Detroit are both just too good this season to be up-ended by any of these three teams or the Cavaliers.
ooops …
should read as … “playing without Agent 0 vs Boston”
Khandor, 42-40 is probably where the Raptors will finish, screwing me on my +42.5 W bet from the preseason, though they could very well end up with 43 or 44, since none of the opponents are too tough.
As for your diamonds in the rough, I agree with Washington and Philly but, as mentioned, one of those teams is going to play Detroit and have no chance. Orlando may be underrated but they just don’t have the D or depth to beat Boston or Detroit in a 2nd round match up.
[...] - Hoops Addict [...]
Blake,
Washington has a solid chance to take at least 2 (if not 3) games against Detroit.
Do that … and it’s a very productive year for the Wizards considering they’ve been without Gil & Caron for significant stretches of the season.
IMO … the Wizards roster of 12 players, when healthy, is almost as strong as Detroit’s … except (and it’s a big one) for playoff experience.
In a 7 game series … if I had to assign a Power Ranking to each of the 8 most likely playoff teams in the EC this is what that list would look like:
1-2 Boston/Detroit (any order)
3-5 Washington/Orlando/Philadelphia (any order)
6 Cleveland
7 Toronto
8 Atlanta
Unfortunately for Cleveland Mike Brown is not a very good coach.
On the other hand, Eddie Jordan/Washington, SVG/Orlando and Mo Cheeks/Philadelphia are solid.
Another good post. Good job, Blake.
As I’ve said before, I don’t mind if the Raptors face Detroit or Boston. That gives the Raptors more U.S. exposure (good) and more time to rest in the offseason (also good).
C’mon! Do you really think the Raps are going anywhere this postseason?
The Magic are the softest seed in the East that has home court advantage. Any team that plays the Magic has a chance at an upset.
Khandor - What makes you think that Gilbert wont be playing in the playoffs ? even if he decided to sit out the remainder of the season, gilbert would certainly be playng in the playoffs.
Brendan,
Whether or not Gil plays in the playoffs isn’t my point.
My point is that the Wizards have 2 regular season wins against the Celtics’ juggernaut this season … despite the fact they haven’t had Agent 0 available for either one of those games (1 at home & 1 on the road).
IMO, in general, most NBA observers are not giving Washington, Philadelphia or Orlando the respect they deserve as teams that can each take games from the Celtics and the Pistons should they meet up in a 7-game playoff series.
As I said before … my personal Power Rankings in the Eastern Conference, right now … differ from what I’ve seen from other pundits recently, as well as what I’ll call the ‘average’ NBA fan.
EC Power Rankings (as of Apr 2)
# Yahoo — ESPN — AverageFan — khandor
1 BOS — BOS — BOS — BOS
2 DET — DET — DET — DET
3 PHI — ORL — CLE — WAS *
4 ORL — PHI — PHI — PHI
5 CLE — TOR — TOR — CLE
6 WAS — CLE — ORL — ORL
7 TOR — WAS — WAS — TOR
8 NJN — ATL — ATL — ATL
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